What: Advanced AI systems are emerging as powerful tools in international negotiations, combining historical peace agreement data, expert insights, and leader-specific behavioural models to help diplomats navigate complex diplomatic scenarios.

Why it is important: As global conflicts and trade tensions multiply, AI's ability to process vast amounts of historical data and simulate multiple scenarios offers negotiators unprecedented support in maintaining momentum and assessing potential outcomes.

In an era of increasing global tensions, AI models are being developed to assist diplomatic negotiations. The Strategic Headwinds project, one of the most advanced initiatives, aims to support Western diplomats in Ukraine talks. The system combines diverse data sources, including a database of 374 peace agreements, expert gameplay data, and specialist insights on negotiation trade-offs. The resulting Ukraine-Russia Peace Agreement Simulator evaluates potential outcomes across four key areas: territory, security, justice, and economics. The project also features AI "advisers" modeled after historical leaders, offering unique perspectives on scenarios. While such models show promise, testing reveals varying tendencies among different AI systems, with some showing more "escalatory" behavior than others. As these tools evolve, they could fundamentally change how diplomatic negotiations are conducted, though questions remain about maintaining human oversight in the process.

IADS Notes: The development of AI negotiation models reflects broader trends in artificial intelligence adoption across industries. As reported in March 2025, AI-enabled teams are demonstrating remarkable efficiency gains, with studies showing individuals using AI matching the performance of traditional two-person teams while reducing work time by 12-16%. This aligns with the article's emphasis on AI's potential to enhance negotiation capabilities. However, implementation challenges persist, as December 2024 data shows only 20% of executives feel their organisations are prepared to address AI skills needs, while just 25% feel equipped to handle AI governance and risks. The varying approaches to risk among different AI models, noted in the article, mirror findings from April 2024 showing how different implementations can lead to significantly different outcomes. Google's January 2025 formation of a specialised team for real-world simulations demonstrates the industry's commitment to advancing AI capabilities in complex decision-making environments.

AI models could help negotiators secure peace deals