What: Bain-Altagamma Luxury Study reveals first contraction in personal luxury goods market in 15 years, highlighting fundamental shifts in consumer behavior and retail channels while projecting 4-6% annual growth through 2030.

Why it is important: This comprehensive market analysis reveals how luxury retail must transform to address changing consumer preferences, channel dynamics, and digital capabilities while maintaining brand value.

The 23rd edition of the Bain-Altagamma Luxury Study reports a 2% decline in personal luxury goods to EUR 363 billion in 2024, marking the first contraction in 15 years excluding Covid. The luxury customer base shrunk by 50 million over two years, while top customers now account for 45% of global purchases, up from 35% in 2021. Channel dynamics show significant shifts, with outlet stores outperforming full-price retail and online sales normalizing at 20% market share. Only one-third of luxury brands achieved growth in 2024, compared to 95% in 2021-22. Looking ahead, the study projects 4-6% annual growth through 2030, reaching EUR 460-500 billion, but success requires brands to rethink their strategies, embrace digital transformation, and rebuild luxury foundations through quality, creativity, and meaningful customer connections.

IADS Notes: The Bain-Altagamma Luxury Study's revelation of the first contraction in personal luxury goods in 15 years marks a fundamental shift in the luxury retail landscape. This aligns with broader industry trends observed in November 2024, where department stores implemented significant transformations in their luxury offerings. The report's finding of a 50 million reduction in luxury customers, coupled with top customers accounting for 45% of purchases, reflects the market polarization identified in December 2024's analysis of changing consumer behaviors.

The outperformance of outlet channels over full-price retail and the normalization of online sales at 20% market share mirrors August 2024's observations about the need for retailers to balance experiential offerings with operational efficiency. This comprehensive transformation of the luxury market, with projected 4-6% annual growth through 2030, demonstrates how luxury retailers must fundamentally rethink their strategies to align with evolving consumer preferences and digital capabilities.

Bain-Altagamma luxury goods worldwide study forecasts long-term growth

Bain & Company, luxury in 2024 and beyond

Bain & Company luxury report