What: Global economic growth is projected at 2.8% for 2025, with varying regional performance driven by consumer spending patterns and local market dynamics.

Why it is important: This forecast reflects a fundamental shift in global retail dynamics, where success depends on understanding and adapting to distinct regional consumer preferences, from European caution to emerging market optimism.

The global economy demonstrates remarkable resilience heading into 2025, with consumer spending momentum across 75 countries indicating a return to long-term trends. The projected 2.8% growth, though modest, represents a significant shift from recent patterns and highlights the economy's underlying strength. Each region presents distinct opportunities and challenges, with Europe showing signs of recovery despite global uncertainties, and the US navigating through a year of known unknowns. Asia Pacific continues its adaptation to new economic realities, while Latin America focuses on growth amid populist influences. The CEMEA region exhibits four distinct sub-regional trends with global implications, including the CIS and Southeast Europe's stabilization, GCC countries' economic diversification, North Africa's renewable energy push, and Sub-Saharan Africa's tech innovation boom. Labour markets, wage growth, and household income trends remain positive factors, while central banks' gradual reduction in policy rates is expected to improve credit access for households and small businesses.

IADS Notes: The global economic outlook for 2025 is supported by significant regional developments observed throughout 2024. As noted in October 2024 , the contrast between US and European consumer behavior highlights the varying pace of recovery, while November 2024 data revealed China's shift toward experiential retail. European markets showed cautious optimism despite inflationary pressures , while emerging markets, particularly India , demonstrated strong growth potential through retail sector transformation and expansion into new cities.

Visa Global Annual Economic Outlook