Canaries in the coal mine? Six facts about the recent employment effects of artificial intelligence

Articles & Reports
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Sep 2025
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Stanford Digital Economy Lab
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What: Generative AI adoption is driving significant changes in retail employment, particularly impacting entry-level roles and prompting a shift toward workforce augmentation rather than replacement.

Why it is important: This shift reflects a broader industry trend where sustainable productivity gains depend on augmenting, not replacing, human talent, as confirmed by recent retail data.

The widespread adoption of generative AI is fundamentally altering the landscape of retail employment, with early-career and entry-level roles experiencing the most pronounced effects. High-frequency data reveal that since late 2022, young workers in AI-exposed positions, such as customer service and sales, have faced notable declines in employment, while more experienced employees and those in less-exposed roles have remained stable or even grown. This trend is particularly acute in occupations where AI is used to automate rather than augment human labor, underscoring the importance of strategic implementation. The evidence suggests that the most successful retailers are those who leverage AI to enhance, rather than replace, their workforce—enabling employees to focus on higher-value tasks and supporting long-term talent development. The distinction between employment and compensation effects is also critical, as workforce adjustments are more visible in job numbers than in wages. Ultimately, the retail sector’s ability to balance technological advancement with human capital investment will determine its resilience and adaptability in an increasingly AI-driven environment.

IADS Notes: Recent industry data from March and June 2025 confirm that leading retailers are achieving 4.5% annual productivity growth through strategic AI integration focused on augmentation, not replacement. This aligns with findings from February and July 2025, which show that only 10% of retailers successfully scale AI applications, and that comprehensive training and human-centric strategies are essential for sustainable transformation. The elimination of entry-level roles threatens talent pipelines and succession planning, while the distinction between automation and augmentation remains central to workforce stability. These trends are evident across both remote and in-person retail roles, reinforcing the need for structured implementation and ongoing investment in human capital.

Canaries in the coal mine? Six facts about the recent employment effects of artificial intelligence