How stablecoins will eat payments, and what happens next

Articles & Reports
 |  
Jan 2025
 |  
a16z
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What: Stablecoins are poised to revolutionise retail payments by offering near-zero transaction fees and eliminating traditional payment gatekeepers.


Why it is important: As retailers face significant payment processing fees, evidenced by the recent USD 30 billion Visa-Mastercard settlement , stablecoins offer a transformative solution that could dramatically improve profit margins while enhancing payment accessibility.


The current payment landscape is dominated by intermediaries who extract substantial fees from every transaction, significantly impacting business profitability. Stablecoins emerge as a compelling alternative, offering near-zero transaction costs and enhanced accessibility without sacrificing reliability or convenience. With 28.5 million unique users conducting over 600 million stablecoin transactions in recent months, the technology has already demonstrated its viability as a payment solution.The impact could be particularly significant for businesses with thin margins. Major retailers like Walmart could potentially increase profitability by 60% through reduced payment fees, while restaurants and grocery stores could see even more dramatic improvements to their bottom lines. The adoption of stablecoins is expected to begin with businesses most affected by current payment costs, gradually expanding as the technology matures and infrastructure improves.As stablecoins gain traction, their programmable nature and permissionless composability will enable new payment experiences and business models, fostering innovation in the retail sector. This transformation, while gradual, is likely to accelerate as more businesses recognise the potential for improved profitability and operational efficiency.


IADS Notes: Recent developments in retail payment systems strongly support the potential for stablecoin adoption. In March 2024, Visa and Mastercard's USD 30 billion settlement over swipe fees  highlighted the industry's need for cost-effective payment solutions. This was further emphasised when Printemps became Europe's first department store to accept cryptocurrencies in November 2024 , demonstrating traditional retail's openness to digital currency innovation. The retail payment landscape has evolved significantly, with mobile payments reaching 70% of global sales by January 2025 , while cross-border transactions during the 2024 Black Friday weekend alone totaled USD 3.2 billion . These developments, coupled with successful implementations of digital currencies like Hong Kong's e-CNY integration , suggest that the retail industry is primed for stablecoin adoption. The trend towards lower transaction fees and improved payment accessibility aligns with the article's vision of stablecoins as a transformative force in retail payments.


How stablecoins will eat payments, and what happens next