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Nick Greenspan, the UK Retail and Consumer Products practices partner at Bain & Company has deep expertise in the digital environment, thanks to 35 years of consulting experience with many of the UK's leading online businesses. His focus is on helping clients with corporate transformations, strategy and vision development, customer-led repositioning and operational improvement.

IADS invited Greenspan to address member CEOs to share his expert opinion about major factors from 2023 that will continue to influence the retail and consumer industries going forward. Greenspan addressed these times of uncertainty and offered a bit of direction to weather upcoming challenging times, offering a bit of a playbook on how to win the future of retail.

How to maintain optimism in the current environment

Greenspan opened the discussion by asking the room: “If there was one capability for your business that you could have to help you thrive in the next 2-5 years, what would that capability be?” The answers ranged from collaboration, a crystal ball into the future to being able to predict what comes next, unlocking data, being adaptable, and delivering service as a differentiator. While all these points are relevant and real issues that retailers are currently facing, Greenspan proposed to see them in a positive manner: in turbulent times, the market share fluctuates the most, meaning there are ways for businesses to differentiate themselves and stand out as opposed to times when the market is stable. Gains made during periods of turbulence have the potential to be maintained throughout the next cycle.

However, Greenspan was vocal on the fact that the focus should not solely be on cost reduction as it is a seductive but limited lever. Instead, he proposed some elements to weather the storm during volatile times.

3 elements needed for businesses to thrive in uncertainty.  

Since the pandemic, the trajectories of each market position have become very different from each other, with pressure currently very strong on both value-end (with many players being disrupted and customers stopping buying for fear of the future) and high-end (where a shift from visible consumption into quieter areas of investment is taking place) segments. For that reason, instead of considering recipes that will not be able to be adapted to each specific situation, businesses should focus on what they need to address current challenges. Retail leaders need to reflect on how strong their businesses are across three key elements and should focus on strengthening areas of weakness to enforce their adaptability in turbulent times.

Greenspan shared three fundamental elements that are crucial for businesses not just to survive, but to thrive amidst uncertainty:

• Prediction: Interpreting data and maintaining a realistic outlook on the future are deemed essential. While the unpredictable nature of the market poses challenges, retailer leaders are encouraged to equip their teams with tools and strategies that enable them to anticipate and respond to changes proactively.
• Resilience: Businesses are encouraged to strike a delicate balance between resilience and efficiency, as Greenspan states that "a perfectly resilient business is also perfectly bankrupt." This highlights the necessity for businesses to be both low-cost and efficient, ensuring their ability not only to withstand sudden shocks but also to recover swiftly.
• Adaptability: Continuous investment in adaptability and the streamlining of services are key components of a successful strategy. Executives are challenged to foster adaptability across the organization, constantly assessing and correcting the course as the external environment evolves.

As a strategic call to action, retail leaders are prompted to engage in self-reflection, evaluating the strength of their businesses across these three vital elements. This strategic approach, tailored to the specific needs and challenges of each business, becomes the cornerstone for thriving in an environment marked by constant change and uncertainty.

What was going on in 2023?

2023 was a tumultuous year with pressure coming from everywhere. The US economy slowed down, there were many signs of local fatigue in Europe, the Chinese economy has not recovered, and there continues to be a lot of post-globalisation and political risk with the wars and unrest. These things led to higher labour costs, increased energy prices, increased commodity prices, disrupted supply chains and incited fear in consumers, thus slowing the economy.

At the same time, retailers were being hit heavily by inflation which increases operational costs and costs of goods sold, while also resulting in the pullback of customer spending. In most markets, no one has the experience of dealing with hyperinflation. So how can department stores equip themselves to prepare for this unknown territory going forward? For starters, it would be wise to ask department store players that are used to operating under such conditions such as Falabella in Chile or Beco in Venezuela. While no one has the innate instincts to handle inflation, a conversation with a business that is used to operating in such conditions could help other players understand what it is like to have inflation as a factor in the business as a whole. Retail businesses can no longer use like-for-likes as a reference in an inflationary environment and they need to be able to adapt and understand their business in different terms as this KPI is no longer relevant. Prediction is all about educating teams on what happens in an inflationary environment, especially as Greenspan predicts 2024 to be tougher than 2023.

The key themes for 2024 and beyond

Some interesting trends need to be considered by retail leaders in the 2 to 5-year scope and forecast in order to be predictable, resilient and adaptable.

Growing, elevating, and having a fluid customer base as new generations gain prevalence

Gen Z and Alpha, expanding at a rate three times faster than other generations, wield significant influence. Notably, Gen Z initiates luxury purchases as early as age 15, while older generations (age 70 and up) tend to stop buying luxury goods after a certain age. The younger generations are opting for online channels over traditional retailers such as department stores and showcasing loyalty driven by promotions rather than brand affiliations. Amidst these shifts, there's a strategic imperative for department stores to engage with luxury brands as department stores can offer a broader set of customers that are cross-shopping brands. Department stores also occupy the best locations in cities, giving a broader physical reach than luxury brands typically have. The challenge lies in avoiding the precarious middle ground (as seen by Debenhams or House of Fraser) and instead, fostering collaborations that extend the luxury brand's influence to offer a win-win partnership to capture the wallet share of these younger customers.

Products and experiences of desire

To cultivate irresistible products and elevate customer experiences, there is an imperative for department stores to triple down on creating immersive environments. However, a challenge arises as the investment in reserving physical space for experience tends to decrease sales per square foot opportunities, making it seemingly counterintuitive to remove products for the sake of theatrics and experience. Despite this paradox, not embracing experiential elements could make a store irrelevant in the ever-evolving retail landscape.

Striking the delicate balance between bringing theatre to retail spaces and maintaining optimal product presentation is crucial for sustained relevance. A strategic approach involves implementing a multi-channel proposition and arming sales assistants with the tools to help customers connect emotionally with the products. It's not an either-or situation; understanding customer behaviour is key to success. Take, for instance, Harrods' black card customers who, despite spending GBP100,000 annually, derive satisfaction from a seemingly irrational GBP20 rebate. Recognizing such idiosyncrasies is imperative for ensuring customer contentment. Additionally, ensuring seamless inventory management is essential to offer the right product, even if it's not physically present in the store. The focus is on driving exceptional experiences for VICs and creating an aura of exclusivity.

Next gen customer connection

In the same vein as upping products and experiences, there is a need to meet customers where they are. Brands are going DTC and using apps like WhatsApp to sell, thus cutting off retailers such as department stores. This means that department stores need to find similar ways to interact and engage with their customers with a focus on product and differentiation in order to stand out and survive as future consumers’ expectations evolve.

Delivering on the sustainability imperative

In the realm of sustainability, consumers continue to express a heightened concern, particularly regarding the removal of plastics. Despite a recent pullback in positioning sustainability as a primary differentiator—attributed to the prevailing political environment where humanitarian issues take precedence over environmental considerations—retailers face a delicate balancing act. The risks associated with discontinuing investments in sustainability initiatives are significant, potentially leading to a massive backlash from both customers and employees. This dynamic landscape is further complicated by changing consumer behaviours, such as the intentional shift towards buying less fashion or opting for second-hand alternatives. Initially, data did not align with vocalized intentions, as consumers expressing sustainability concerns continued purchasing from fast fashion retailers. However, recent trends indicate a growing alignment between consumer behaviours and their stated values.

To address this shift, many department stores are strategically introducing more circular products, with watches and jewellery proving to be more successful in this sustainable business model than clothing. The inclusion of sustainability and circular products not only opens a dialogue with customers but also presents an opportunity to explore these environmentally conscious offerings. While the demand for such products may be less than vocalized, positioning recycled items as limited and exclusive products creates a unique value proposition. Consumer scepticism towards certifications and labels remains, yet there is a clear desire for narratives surrounding second-hand products.

Tech-enhanced value chain

In navigating the evolving retail landscape of 2023 and beyond, the strategic investment in technology and data emerges as a cornerstone for success. Recognizing the significance of maintaining customer relationships in these unique market conditions, retailers are compelled to revisit foundational principles. While the current market climate differs significantly from the past, there is a renewed focus on core fundamentals, such as prioritizing the product and its shelf presence.

Simultaneously, safeguarding the front-line staff has become paramount—a critical yet often overlooked element in recent years. Amidst this backdrop, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands out as a powerful enabler, offering retailers the means to decipher vast datasets for tailored customer experiences. The key application of AI lies in its ability to facilitate rapid changes in the retail experience. The imperative is not to pursue perfection but to engage in a process of iterative testing. AI's transformative potential extends beyond customer interactions to reinventing and optimizing supply chains and internal operations. The strategic decision for retailers involves weighing the extent to which they engage in these advancements independently versus awaiting plug-and-play systems from major suppliers. While certain aspects, such as accounting AI automation, may be outsourced to industry giants like SAP, there's a compelling case for retailers to internally pilot and build customer experience solutions.

Conclusion: Navigating a retail business across unknown waters

In navigating the complex landscape of retail's future, strategic insights from Greenspan underscore crucial imperatives. The trifecta of prediction, resilience, and adaptability emerges as paramount for business survival and prosperity. Reviewing 2023's challenges—from economic slowdowns to inflation pressures—these all called for a response from retail leaders, while many have never faced such obstacles before. Looking forward to 2024 and beyond, there are persistent themes of change that emphasize the imperative for department stores to engage with changing consumer demographics, prioritize experiential retail, embrace sustainability, and leverage technology for a resilient future. In essence, the roadmap provided advocates for a dynamic, customer-centric, and tech-enhanced approach as the cornerstone for success in the ever-evolving retail landscape.

Credits: IADS (Mary Jane Shea)