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Annual Department Store Results 

Assessing the concrete and measurable outcomes of the crises since 2019 and analysing the continued recovery patterns witnessed in the 2022 fiscal year.

In May 2021, Dr. Christopher Knee launched the “IADS 100 Report”, a first-of-its-kind report gathering the financial data and figures of 100 department stores around the world. This global observatory was created in a time of turmoil to create a benchmark for global department store players.

Since the release of the first report in 2021, it has been proven to be a difficult task to find relevant and comparable data for 100 or more consistent department stores as many companies change hands in ownership, decide to go private, or don’t break out results by business unit. To clarify the definition of this report, we have decided to rename it to “The IADS Global Department Store Monitor” to reflect that we are consistently reviewing the landscape and updating it with any important and relevant information.

Another area of important clarification is around what results are being captured in the report. Fiscal years do not always line up with some companies finishing their year with the calendar year and others ending their fiscal year in June or July. The 2022 fiscal results for this monitor have been considered as any annual report that closes from the end of December 2022 to those that end in June 2023. To compare yearly results, this pattern has been followed for all previous year’s results as well. This baseline allows a level of consistency in the events that have occurred in the years covered to be able to draw conclusions.

The entire reason the IADS 100, now the IADS Global Department Store Monitor*, was launched was to address the various amounts of disruptions that followed the Covid-19 pandemic and after, as it seems that disruption is now a norm in the retail business. Even now at the beginning of 2024, the baseline of annual results is still being compared to 2019 figures.

What does this say about the state of recovery? We are not out of the woods yet.

This report will attempt to detail some of the major changes across global retail markets and understand what a new turbulent normal could promise. Note: To make comparisons year over year, all exchange rates to Euros come from March 22, 2021, which was the date chosen during the initial IADS 100 release.*

Fiscal year 2022 to 2023: Navigating turbulence on the road to recovery

As retailers ventured into the new year, the challenges of the past two years continued to cast a long shadow, requiring an 'all hands on deck' response to manage the ongoing ripple effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. This period saw a combination of social and political unrest, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, an energy crisis, and the looming threat of inflation. Despite the collective hope that 2022 would usher in a semblance of relief, the reality proved more complex.

The year unfolded against a backdrop of persistent global turmoil, including the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, intensifying political unrest and reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Amidst these challenges, a significant demographic shift occurred, with India surpassing China as the world's most populous country in April 2023, adding another layer of complexity to the global economy and some foreshadowing as to what would occur in the future retail landscape.

However, amid the adversity, 2022 also brought forth exciting trends that promise opportunities for adaptation and growth. Advances in machine learning and AI (such as the public release of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022) emerged as powerful tools for retailers to cut costs, build more efficiency and make strides toward sustainability goals. While governments continued to make progress on sustainability regulations and the demand for sustainable goods persisted among consumers, the prioritization of making progress on things such as Scope 3 emission tracking began to take a back seat as the world grappled with the sobering reality of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

For department stores, the fiscal exercise in 2022 centered on a dual focus: generating revenue and gaining control over costs without compromising their core value proposition. In this intricate dance between economic recovery and global challenges, retailers found themselves navigating a terrain that demanded resilience, adaptability, and a strategic response to an evolving consumer landscape.

2022 results: the race to the 2019 starting line

Asia: an uneven playing field

In China, Rainbow (-1%), Wangfujing (-15%), Maoye (-22%), Parkson Retail Group (-23%), Wushang (-11%), Golden Eagle (-9%), and New World (-23%) all saw a slightly negative sales trend in 2022 compared to 2021. While some of these department store players saw positive results in the previous period between 2020 and 2021, not one has rebounded back to 2019 baseline figures. This could be explained by the continued “zero-Covid” restrictions that remained strictly in effect until November 2022 when Chinese citizens began to protest the lockdowns leading the government to eventually ease measures. In Hong Kong, Wing On (-8%) had similar results to those in China with a slight drop off from 2021 sales figures, still unable to return to 2019 results. It is also important to mention that Sogo (Lifestyle) went private in 2022, therefore there is no longer follow-up data on their results. In fiscal 2021, Sogo was operating higher than 2020 levels but still had quite a bit of recovery before meeting its 2019 baseline. Also, BHG’s 2022 results were not explicitly shared but saw strong recovery from 2019 results with 2020 at a +16% increase and 2021 at a +62.5% increase compared to 2019.

India, on the other hand, has become the country to watch in the retail world, especially as they have been able to pick up much of the market China has lost, and their results show their strength. Lifestyle (Landmark Group) (+46%) and Shopper’s Stop (+63%) both reported FY22 earnings that not only surpassed 2021 figures but also 2019 results.

Japanese department stores saw a range of results with H2O (+28%), Isetan Mitsukoshi (+11%), Tobu (+20%), Tokyu (+5%), and Kintetsu (+11%) reporting positive results from 2021 to 2022 while all remaining negative in comparison to 2019 figures with the exception of H2O (+4%) which had a slight uptick from 2019 results. Daimaru Matsuzakaya (-12%) and Marui (-5%) reported slight losses between 2021 results and 2022 results while Takashimaya (-49% due to closures and restructuring of some locations as well as reduced customer confidence with rising costs) and Sogo Seibu (-59% which has been struggling for years as more e-commerce players enter the market and with reduced store doors, Seven & I Holding company has now sold off the department store) showed much larger deficits each due to their unique situations.

The rest of Asia saw a variety of results. Matahari (+16%) in Indonesia reported a slight increase in turnover, this stays on its positive upward trend from 2021, but unfortunately still falls very short compared to 2019 results. In the Philippines, SM (+25%) and Robinson’s Retail (Rustan’s) (+61%) saw a healthy increase in results in 2022 with SM ultimately beating 2019 figures. In Korea, Hyundai (+40%) and Lotte (+12%) both reported an increased turnover in 2022 and in comparison to 2019, while Hanwha Galleria (-19%) reported a decrease in turnover in 2022. Finally, Odel (+12%) in Sri Lanka and Central Retail Corp (+21%) in Thailand both exceeded 2021 results.

To recap, with the goal being to outperform 2019 numbers, the only department stores in Asia that reported higher sales in 2022 than in 2019 are Lifestyle (Landmark Group) (+27%) and Shopper’s Stop (+16%) in India, H2O (+4%) in Japan, Hyundai (+128%) and Lotte (+3%) in Korea, SM (+4%) in the Philippines, Odel (+11%) in Sri Lanka, and Central Retail Corp (+6%) in Thailand.  Though the sample size is not all-encompassing, major players are included and it is very interesting to note that no players from China (that we can track) have been able to reach a 2019 rebound in 2022 suggesting that recovery in China might be a harder feat following all the disruptions from pandemic and lockdowns the retailers operating there have faced.

In Oceania, Myer beat 2019 results in 2022 with a +27% increase and also improved performance by +12% between 2021 and 2022. As for David Jones, the department store was sold by Woolworths therefore making 2022 figures unable to be retrieved, but the department store had surpassed 2019 levels in 2020 (+2%) before falling just below the 2019 baseline with a -3% fall between 2020 and 2021 results.

Europe: The 2022 recovery journey was both challenging and transformative

Across Europe, department stores in the sample all saw increased sales from 2021 to 2022. This includes Coop Group (+2%) and Jelmoli (+11%) in Switzerland, NK (+14%) in Sweden, El Corté Ingles (+8%) in Spain, Coin (+4%) in Italy, Stockmann (+10%) in Finland, and Kaubamaja (+13%) in Estonia. All of these retailers have also beaten 2019 benchmarks except for Coin (-33%), Stockmann (-17%) and El Corté Ingles (-6%).

The UK especially saw a lot of government and legal transition from a change of hand following the death of Queen Elizabeth II to the tumultuous change of 3 prime ministers in just three months from Boris Johnson to Liz Truss, who only lasted 45 days, to Rishi Sunak who now faces the task of steering the country through a recession with soaring inflation. Despite these changes, the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee at the beginning of 2022 and her funeral at the end of 2022, as well as the ease of travel restrictions, brought 2022 back to a strong year of tourism in the UK which in turn helped retailers recover.

Against this backdrop, UK department stores, including Marks & Spencer (+10%), John Lewis (+0.3%), Harrods (+192%), Selfridges Group (+29%), Fenwick (+31%), and Liberty (+42%), demonstrated positive growth between 2021 and 2022. Marks & Spencer (+17%), John Lewis (+2%), Fenwick (+13%), and Liberty (+25%) even surpassed 2019 figures, indicating a robust recovery. Although the fiscal year 2022 results for Fortnum & Mason and Harvey Nichols are undisclosed, Fortnum & Mason (+34%) had already exceeded 2019 levels in 2021, while Harvey Nichols (-29%) continued to grapple with recovery challenges.

To dive deeper into some of these UK department stores, Selfridges navigated a transition year in 2022 under new owners, Central Group and Signa, overcoming challenges such as increased debt, staff restructuring, and rising interest rates. Despite these hurdles, the department store experienced a turnover increase. Harrods staged a remarkable recovery, surpassing 2019 levels. The store's ability to operate throughout the fiscal year without closures and with fewer global travel restrictions contributed to its success. Fenwick returned to profits, driven by the sale of its New Bond Street store. The company's future strategy involves significant investment in digital platforms, recognizing them as a growth driver, and enhancing their physical stores, especially the Newcastle location. While all these achievements in 2022 are noteworthy and a great recovery back to 2019 benchmarks, fiscal 2023 and beyond will be a challenge of their own as the country undergoes inflation pressures and rising costs amidst changing consumer behaviours. UK department stores are encouraged to think ahead and invest in their future, which is what Fenwick is trying to do. But will it be enough?

Americas: a gradual push towards 2019 benchmarks

As opposed to the positive growth trend seen across the board from the Americas department store sample in 2021, 2022 results were less promising. Chilean retailers Falabella (-13%), Ripley (-8%), Cencosud Paris (-7%), and US retailers Kohl’s (-7%) and Macy’s Group (almost flat at -0.1%) all saw a downward trend in department store sales from 2021 to 2022. Alternatively, Mexican retailers El Palacio de Hierro (+23%) and Liverpool (+16%), Ecuadorian retailer De Prati (+15%), and US retailers Dillard’s (+6%) and Nordstrom (+5%) reported growth. Neiman Marcus did not share 2022 results but did state that the business in the fiscal year was ‘relatively’ flat compared to the previous year.

Those surpassing 2019 benchmarks included all of the sample minus Kohl’s (-9%), and coming in almost flat, but just below 2019 figures were Macy’s Group (-0.5%) and Nordstrom (-0.3%). The rest of the department stores in the Americas reported a recovery compared to 2019 with results as the following: Ripley (+32%), El Palacio de Hierro (+30%), Liverpool (+25%), De Prati (+14%), Dillard’s (+11%), Cencosud Paris (+10%), Falabella (+7%). Also, it is once again important to mention that Neiman Marcus’s results are unknown for this comparison.

Retailers in Latin America continue to face a political shift to the left that started in 2018 and which has continued to impact the political landscape in the region. Despite political changes, Latin American retailers are experienced in operating during inflationary periods, which is something the rest of the retail world is not used to doing. Thus, Latin American players may be able to weather the next few years better than other areas of the world. In 2022, countries like Chile saw a drop in total retail spending, a shift from the recovery in 2021 driven by increased consumption. The more cautious spending in 2022 was influenced by a reduced money supply, a new government, and a significant global and domestic inflation increase. While in Mexico sales growth in 2022 slowed compared to 2021 but remained positive thanks to surging consumer prices and top-line inflation. Across Latin America, e-commerce and digital channels are continuing to be developed while store redesigns are also being put at the forefront.

In the US, a major topic that continued to be addressed following the pandemic was around inventory and supply chain management with excess inventory and shifting customer behaviours. To address this inventory, US department stores had to heavily rely on discounting in 2022 which in turn impacted gross margins. Off-price retailers saw a lot of growth during the period, which made department stores rethink their business model and sizes of their physical stores allowing them to offer a smaller and more profitable footprint.

Macy’s Group has tested this type of footprint revamp with smaller format stores but is still trying to find the right physical store mix by expanding their Market by Macy’s and Bloomies concepts (this is a major strategy going forward for the business) while in parallel closing underperforming stores, exiting failing centres, and improving store experiences. Finding the right balance between making physical stores profitable and reacting to the deceleration of digital channels impacted the business in 2022. Nordstrom is showing similar results to Macy’s when comparing 2022 to 2019 and has also expanded its smaller format concept (Nordstrom Local) but it is their discounted store (Nordstrom Rack) that is a solid investment as they produce returns that exceed the cost of capital in a short period. This is why Nordstrom has carried out the expansion of Nordstrom Rack in 2023 and will continue the growth of locations in 2024. So why is it that Macy’s and Nordstrom are reporting losses in 2022 and compared to 2019 while Dillard’s, which has not begun to offer smaller local formats, has reported growth in 2022 and against 2019 baselines? Could this mean that Macy’s and Nordstrom just need some time to figure out the right store mix? Or does Dillard’s have some kind of secret to beating 2019 baselines that the other US department store chains have not figured out?

What to expect from the 2023 fiscal year and beyond

A major trend seen from fiscal year 2022 and which has continued into 2023 has been the number of department stores that are either changing hands, going private or in talks of such a change. In Asia, Japan’s Seven & I Holdings decided to sell Sogo & Seibu in mid-2023 to Fortress Investment Group, while Hong Kong’s Sogo (Lifestyle) announced it would be going private at the end of 2022. In Europe, France’s Galeries Lafayette Group sold BHV Marais in early 2023, and Sweden’s Ahlens was sold by Axel Johnson to Ayad Al-Saffar. At the end of 2022, South Africa’s Woolworths sold Australia’s David Jones unit to a private equity fund. In the US, Kohl’s was being put under pressure by shareholders in 2022 to sell as they were not meeting profit expectations and Macy’s reportedly received a USD 5.8 billion buyout offer in December 2023 to go private. All of these changes and moves to go private can be attributed to the fact that operating in a public market in these times is very difficult, and going private allows companies to have more freedom and access to levers to make faster changes which can in turn offer a narrowed focus on reshaping the business for the new market conditions.

The global landscape has become increasingly intricate both geopolitically, with escalating conflicts such as those involving Israel and Ukraine, and economically, contributing to sustained challenges in supply chains. The ongoing escalation in global transport and energy costs is further fuelling inflation across various regions. This inflationary trend is expected to persist and exert continued influence on business outcomes. As consumers exercise caution and restrain from making non-essential purchases, there is a potential for fiscal 2023 performance to be adversely affected compared to 2022. In response to such economic uncertainties, private label products are gaining traction as a viable alternative, perceived as a cost-saving measure.

New markets are emerging, especially India, as the country has been able to capitalize on the loss of Chinese business due to the country’s late release of Covid restrictions. India’s retail scene is growing with a surge of retail square meters increasing by +46% in 2023. Luxury department stores such as Galeries Lafayette announced expansion into India in 2023 and now Walmart is importing more goods to the US from India and reducing its reliance upon China.

When it comes to consumer behaviours and shopping trends, department stores across the world have to better understand how to manage their inventory and services across their omnichannel. Covid brought on major investments and developments into e-commerce platforms and online sales hit record highs. But now consumers want to come back to physical stores and have in-store experiences, but the traditional large formats are not what they are looking for. This has encouraged department stores to test smaller formats and off-mall locations. As department stores work out the right mix between online sales and the sweet spot of physical retail sizes and concepts, profitability will be a key indicator of decision-making going forward.

Speaking of profitability, in the coming years, retailers will pivot their attention towards achieving heightened profitability and efficiency. The accessibility of AI technology is reaching unprecedented levels, prompting retailers to reassess which facets of their business can benefit from more efficient AI integration. Just as the pandemic reshaped consumer behaviour, retailers must now respond adeptly by reintroducing customers to stores, offering products and services that align with their evolving demands. Amidst economic pressures, these challenges become even more intense, requiring strategic innovation and adaptability.

IADS Note

While department store diversity can be a strength, it also makes comparisons difficult. It is clear, for example, that data concerning revenue, profits, selling space etc. will often not be available from privately held companies. If the IADS obtains such data privately and confidentially, we will not publish it.

Credits: IADS (Mary Jane Shea)