What: Deloitte projects a return to pre-pandemic holiday sales growth rates, driven by resilient consumers and strong ecommerce performance.

Why it is important: The forecast highlights the increasing importance of ecommerce and value-driven strategies in a cautious retail environment.

Deloitte’s 2025 holiday retail forecast anticipates retail sales growth of 2.9% to 3.4%, totaling between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion, marking a return to pre-pandemic growth levels. This moderation follows last year’s 4.2% increase and reflects a more cautious consumer outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainty, high credit and student debt, and only modest improvements in disposable income. Despite these headwinds, ecommerce is expected to expand by 7% to 9%, surpassing $305 billion, as consumers increasingly embrace digital channels and mobile shopping. The report notes that steady income growth can help offset economic pressures, supporting continued spending even as consumer confidence wavers. Retailers are advised to focus on value, competitive pricing, and private-label products to attract budget-conscious shoppers, especially as Gen Z signals a sharper reduction in holiday spending. The trend toward earlier holiday shopping, driven by concerns over potential price increases, further underscores the need for agile promotional strategies and a nuanced understanding of shifting consumer behaviors.

IADS Notes: Deloitte’s forecast aligns with recent industry analyses from September and October 2024, which identified a slowdown in holiday sales growth and highlighted the resilience of retail despite economic uncertainty. The surge in ecommerce, with global online holiday spending reaching $1.2 trillion in January 2025, reflects the sector’s digital transformation. Reports from July 2025 and January 2025 confirm that consumers remain adaptable, shopping earlier and using technology to maximize value, while retailers respond with competitive pricing and expanded private-label offerings to maintain profitability and meet evolving consumer expectations.

Holiday retail sales expected to top USD 1.61 trillion, Deloitte reports