Author: Carl Benedikt Frey

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Comments: *Carl Benedikt Frey is the co-author of the famous paper from Oxford University published in 2013 which gained so much notoriety because it purportedly argued that 47% of US jobs would be automated by the mid-2030s. The paper in question of course argued no such thing: it in fact looked at the characteristics of over 700 jobs and found that 47% of them were at “high risk” of automation, meaning that they are the most vulnerable. Whether they will actually be automated will depend on costs, regulations; political pressure; social resistance etc.

Frey has now developed his argument more fully in The Technology Trap. It turns out that he is worried that the effects of technology and automation will not be properly managed. He takes lessons from the history of industrialisation. The first is that it takes time for the effects of technology to be seen in productivity. This is known as Engels’s pause which describes the delay before technology results in more jobs and higher wages. The second is that before the positive effects are felt, automation is likely to increase inequality leading to unrest and opposition. This may in turn slow the pace of automation and productivity growth. This the “technology trap” of the title. It could be avoided by managing the transition, for example through educational measures, income tax credit to alleviate inequality and provide incentives, increasing the ease of mobility, access to cities and others. Whether these measures are reasons for optimism is not clear, especially since some seem to generate adverse reactions.*