What: Global leisure travel expenditure is set to triple to $15 trillion by 2040, driven by emerging markets' growing middle class and changing consumer preferences.

Why it is important: This projection signals a fundamental shift in global retail dynamics, where emerging markets like China, India, and Saudi Arabia are reshaping travel retail through increased spending power and evolving consumer behaviours.

Boston Consulting Group's comprehensive analysis of the leisure travel industry reveals a dramatic transformation in global consumer spending patterns. Based on a survey of nearly 5,000 travellers, the report projects annual travel expenditure to triple from USD 5 trillion in 2024 to USD 15 trillion by 2040. This growth is primarily driven by emerging markets, particularly China, India, and Saudi Arabia, where an expanding middle class is fueling new travel aspirations. International leisure travel is expected to more than triple from USD 424 billion to USD 1.4 trillion by 2040, reflecting changing consumer preferences and increased mobility. The report highlights a notable trend in emerging markets, where 70% of travellers combine leisure with business trips, a practice less common in the US. Despite potential geopolitical risks, the industry has demonstrated resilience, with consumers increasingly embracing last-minute travel and prioritising experiences over material possessions.

IADS Notes: Recent market developments strongly support BCG's projections. In May 2024, the global duty-free and travel retail market was forecast to reach USD 121.09 billion by 2029, while November 2024 data showed 95% of Chinese travelers incorporating shopping into their journeys. India's emergence as a transformative force is evidenced by March 2025 reports showing 43% of luxury consumers coming from non-metro cities, with projected tourism spending of USD 89 billion. The Gulf region's 6% luxury sales growth to USD 12.8 billion in May 2025 further validates the emerging markets' impact. This transformation is particularly visible in consumer behavior, with February 2025 data highlighting the rise of "goods getaways" where product exclusivity and experiential retail drive destination choices.

The leisure travel market will be worth $15 Trillion by 2040, report says