What: The UK’s statistics agency revised down retail sales figures for the first half of the year, revealing lower growth than previously reported and admitting to failures in seasonal adjustment.

Why it is important: The revisions highlight the challenges of accurately measuring retail performance and the risks these errors pose for business and policy decisions.

The Office for National Statistics has revised down its UK retail sales figures for the first half of the year, acknowledging significant failures in its seasonal adjustment process. This recalibration revealed that retail sales growth was weaker than initially reported, with the agency admitting that previous figures overstated monthly volatility due to incorrect adjustments for holidays such as Easter. The revisions have drawn criticism from policymakers and the Bank of England, who rely on accurate data to guide economic decisions. The ONS’s difficulties are not isolated to retail, as similar issues have affected other key data series, including labour market and inflation statistics. These persistent errors have complicated the work of economists and investors, who depend on reliable figures to assess consumer demand and forecast market trends. The episode underscores the fragility of consumer confidence and the heightened risks for retailers operating in an environment where data reliability is in question.

IADS Notes: The ONS’s downward revision of retail sales figures mirrors the volatility and unpredictability seen in the UK retail sector throughout the past year. Reports from June 2025 and March 2025 highlight how slowing sales growth, shifting consumer priorities, and regulatory pressures have already complicated strategic planning. The unpredictability of official data, with both surprise upswings and unexpected declines, has made forecasting difficult for retailers and policymakers. Business leaders’ optimism remains at odds with broader economic concerns, as many plan price increases amid persistent uncertainty, while retailers adapt by increasing discounts and focusing on essential categories to maintain demand.

UK retail sales figures revised down for first half of year