What: "CEO sentiment survey reveals sharp increase in recession expectations to 62% amid growing concerns about tariffs, revenue decline, and profitability challenges for 2025."

Why it is important: "This deterioration in CEO outlook, combined with specific concerns about tariffs and revenue, suggests major strategic shifts ahead for retail operations and planning."

The latest US Chief Executive survey of over 300 CEOs in April reveals a sharp decline in business confidence, with 62% now anticipating a recession within six months, up from 48% in March. While most expect a mild recession, the proportion forecasting a severe downturn has increased significantly from 3% to 14%. Tariff concerns are particularly acute, with 76% of CEOs expecting negative or very negative business impacts this year. Revenue expectations have deteriorated dramatically since January, with only 49% anticipating growth in 2025, down from 84%, while 44% expect declines, up from 9%. Profitability outlook shows similar deterioration, with just 37% projecting increased profits, down from 76% in January. This contrasts with Wall Street economists' more moderate recession probability estimates, though major banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have recently raised their projections to 45% and 60% respectively.

Recent CEO sentiment data reveals growing concerns about economic headwinds and their impact on business performance. According to Visa's March 2025 report , consumer confidence has hit a three-year low, with inflation expectations surging to 6.0%, aligning with CEOs' increased recession expectations of 62%. Visa's January 2025 analysis of global economic growth projections at 2.8% provides context for the dramatic decline in CEO revenue growth expectations, from 84% to 49%. The National Retail Federation's April 2025 forecast of 2.7-3.7% retail sales growth suggests a more moderate outlook than the stark CEO sentiment decline might indicate, though digital commerce's projected 7-9% growth shows channel-specific opportunities. The Financial Times' February 2025 coverage of consumer response to Trump's tariffs helps explain why 76% of CEOs anticipate negative tariff impacts, with data showing widespread supply chain restructuring and elimination of key trade exemptions. These developments suggest a fundamental shift in business planning and strategy as companies navigate multiple challenges including inflation, tariffs, and changing consumer behavior.

Where do US CEOs think their companies and the economy are headed?